Wednesday, 1 September 2010
IRAQ IMPORTANT DATES
10 Sept 2010 End of Ramadan
27-28 September Oil & Gas Conference Istanbul, Turkey
8-10 October IMF Meet with CBI in Washington D.C.
24 October 2010 Iraq National Census (extended to 2011)
December 2010 DFI Account extended
December 2010 3rd Review Stand-by-agreement (IMF)
March 2011 Kurdistan Regional Elections
March 2011 Arab League Summit – Baghdad
We have nine or ten days left depending on which religious sect you fall under before the Ramadan celebration is over. The feast that marks the end of Ramadan is Eid ul-Fitr which lasts for several days. For all of you waiting on, expecting a government to form during Ramadan you will continue to wait. The Eid celebration is more important than forming a government.
The Al-Iraqiyah list leader, Dr. Iyad Allawi, sent several days ago a reform paper to the State of Law Coalition (SLC) officials and is still waiting on the approval of the political bloc. According to the Al-Iraqiyah list the approval of the reform paper is crucial in removing the obstacles in forming the next government.
The former Director to PM Maliki office, Tariq Najm Abdallah, resigned because of major differences within the SLC political bloc is carrying his influence over to the Al-Iraqiyah List. This will be at the detriment of SLC as T. Abdallah knows all the secrets.
The computers that were seized and auctioned off at the Umm Qasr Port have now been returned to the U.S. Army and are now going to a children’s school in Babil Governorate. The Iraqi customs states it was just a simple mix up in records.
In regards to any evidence of RV for this month I can only base my analysis for the next thirty days.
When considering this I take into account the following and other issues not mentioned.
- No seated Iraq government in place
- Iraqi banks are weak and lack funds to make loans for reconstruction projects
- Electricity levels are lower than pre-war levels
- Oil exports are declining in the year 2010; 1.8 bpd reported in July 2010
- The carrying of debt on the books of State Banks Rasheed and Rafidain
- Central Bank of Iraq still sweeping Ministry accounts of all unspent funds
- Iraq government failing to pay contractors for projects completed several years ago
- Ministry of Finance failed to complete audit of Iraq banks.
- Iraq banks not merging or partnering with other banks to increase value
Based on all this and other issues there will not be an RV in the month of September 2010.
In other politics the Vice President Al-Mahdi proposed three options in regards to the Prime Minister position. Al-Mahdi presented three options to leader of the Al-Sadr Trend, Muqtada Al-Sadr.
1. Approaching the State of Law Coalition and either accepting its candidate or a replacement candidate from within the coalition
2. Approaching the Al-Iraqiyah List and accepting its candidate
3. Selecting a candidate representing the Iraqi National Alliance (INA)
The Al-Sadr Trend leader did not respond to the options presented by the Vice President Al-Mahdi.
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